Zach Miller, TE, Arizona St. But they both seemed to be highly-touted prospects who put it together in their last year and shot up the draft charts. I also wonder if the Raiders come to their senses and pass on Russell and the Browns take Quinn, how far could Russell fall? Ted Ginn, WR, Ohio St. The class's 47 wins are the fewest since the NFL and AFL started their common draft in 1967. Sometimes you just can't predict injuries. I would think he would be lower than the other Young, Leinart and Cutler. Basically, this says to me that althogh Russell might become a good, even great, QB, there just isn't enough data, scouting or otherwise, to conclude that for sure.

Thanks for the insight David.

players do have flaws, simple statistics says that Russell’s likely worse than they If you look for faults long enough you will find them. As for Penn State RBs, that bust myth is blown way out of proportion. Brian Brohm—Selected in the second round out of Louisville. In 2009, he and Anderson split time throughout the season and he even set a Brown's record with three touchdowns in a quarter in a loss to Detroit. by David Lewin (not verified) // Apr 18, 2007 - 12:44pm. He made one start in the next five seasons, losing it with the Dolphins in 2010. Here is a guy whose teammates respected him. of competition, measurables, workouts, and flaws.

Kevin Kolb—Selected in the second round out of Houston. That Carr is younger and has more potential? Maybe his mobility can add another layer to his game? This is used to provide traffic data and reports to the authors of articles on the HubPages Service. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Cal If you sit on the bench for years, or have a low comp. I agree with the tone of the article that a first round pick is too dear for a pig in a poke like Russell. If he can get some playmakers at receiver in 2009, he should be able to take the next step. Reggie Nelson, S, Florida He's a little tough to project because he could go anywhere from the late second to the fourth round. I think you are missing my point. that extra time practicing your craft during an apprenticeship (college ball) could Great stuff, David. by Peter Libero (not verified) // Apr 19, 2007 - 11:24am. I was the one who first (on this board) started talking about JaMarcus' NFL potential.

Russell, at the end of 2005, wasn't considered a first-round pick. borderline starter. Which I know is important in The System. That being said his stats are nothing impressive.

As a Colt fan, I pay scant attention to college QBs, so it was a real learning experience regarding the two men and the basic metrics for evaluation. by James C (not verified) // Apr 17, 2007 - 1:00pm. I understand that you are a quinn proponent however your argument against Russell is weak at best. Copyright © 2020 HubPages Inc. and respective owners.HubPages Inc, a part of Maven Inc. As a user in the EEA, your approval is needed on a few things. Alex Smith? But what's the cause? Russell clearly blew his underneath reads, panicked, and just lofted the ball up. Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech Levi Brown, OT, Penn St. Yes. Since 1997 seven quarterbacks who started fewer than 30 games in college have been drafted in the top ten: Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Michael Vick, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Alex Smith. Quinn's slide is reminiscent of another recent top quarterback prospect who chose to stick around for his senior year, Matt Leinart. The point is that teams might not have known this in 1998. I'm with you 100%, Badger. Roethlisberger: 119 for 311 in 40 starts. The projection system leverages that. accurate, that Russell likely would have turned out to be a much better pro QB if he had Having said that, the problem gets magnified when you start out trading upper tier prospects two for one. There is a difference between a long toss competition and throwing a fastball down the middle of the field. Do you think the QB's with less games started bust more often because their performance regresses over their inherent value ( and creating a lot of hype) and they get drafted with less experience and more hype and they bust? Here's that under 30 starts list again: Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Michael Vick, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Alex Smith. I'm already accounting Tony Romo didn't look as good in the second half of the year once teams had some time to figure him out. Again: his own coach.

Will Allen, if somebody comes up with a device to measure opportunity cost across a broad spectrum of daily life, they will become rich beyond measure. After a enduring a concussion after playing for Buffalo in 2013, he was forced to retire due to post concussion syndrome. and testing I'm not interested enough to actually do it) and if the QB projection system is Maybe he shouldn't be taken before the third round. And the idea would be that you'd find a reverse correlation at the end of the draft - the guys with fewer starts drafted at the end of the draft are more likely to exceed their draft projection. But in all seriousness, how do you let 1 game determine so much of the value for a player... 1 freaking game! I love this stuff. Look at Manning improving his mobility last year, or Brady improving his long ball the year before. These systems put up much better passing numbers than Purdue or any other pseudo spread team. An interesting guy to watch in this regard is Colt Brennan of Hawaii. And the MO never changed. I hope that Al Davis does not read this. Both rookies showed remarkable poise in getting their respective teams into the playoffs. On the first play from scrimmage Auburn sat back in a soft Cover-2 zone with the safeties deep. by David Lewin (not verified) // Apr 17, 2007 - 11:40pm. Your model will not hold up with Russell- it's what happens on the field that you cannot predict with a model or a computer- the guy is a stud. by Kelly (not verified) // Apr 18, 2007 - 9:25pm. Still, if teams started sending raw high picks to Europe and treating it like a serious minor league instead of a slightly annoying chore, the careers of some players might be saved. by David Lewin (not verified) // Apr 17, 2007 - 2:08pm. Finally, a good article regarding the 2007 quarterbacks. Easily the most impressive rookie year by a quarterback I’ve seen in the last 10 years. He played in a very simple system, had good pass blocking, and his receivers were all spectacular. You can certainly develop a case that Russell would have performed as Tampa Bay Mike assumes. by Will Allen (not verified) // Apr 17, 2007 - 1:49pm. by Pat (not verified) // Apr 18, 2007 - 7:54pm, Uh, given that the alternative is paying him $7-10M/year to suck, I think the answer is "could they afford not to?".

5.) I know if the Bears drafted Stanton I would be very upset. It went pretty much unnoticed because he played an otherwise stellar game, but it is a recurring problem. Chris, it would have been less obvious then, but it wouldn't have changed the reality. All in all he has a number of characteristics that you don't like to see in a young quarterback. For more about the method behind the College Quarterback Projection System, and projections for young quarterbacks already in the league, see David's expanded article in Pro Football Prospectus 2007, available this summer. Not so on Smith. You don't know what the scouts would see. So what is the one thing that everyone says Vick needs to learn to do? So a high rating in the draft is used as a normalizing factor for all other projections outside of the statistics…cool. The whole reason coaches run waggles, screens, draws on 3rd downs is so that defenses can't just tee off on the spot 5-7 steps behind a quarterback. He has huge hands, which help him avoid fumbles, and remarkably quick feet for such large man.

This is used to identify particular browsers or devices when the access the service, and is used for security reasons. his numbers were inflated not because of the system though, but because of the water weak schedule that ND plays every season.

It is a very reasonable argument to say that nine-year running back Ahmad Bradshaw had a more successful career than any of the quarterbacks selected in that draft (most notably those in the top 100). Needs to soak up everything he can from McNabb in the meantime. Young started three more games than Russell. I'd say you could add Franco Harris and Curt Warner to the list with LJ of backs that have done at least OK! It was bizarre. Not when your position as a first round pick is based entirely on your previous year. With a career sub 60 percent completion rate and a near equal touchdown to interception ratio, he's just an average backup quarterback. In four years as a starter, he accounted for 12,964 passing yards and 85 touchdowns. Honestly, Chris, your constant trolling is a drag. That's why he'll go most likely in the top three, if not first overall. Beck wouldn't start a game again until 2011 where he started in three games for Washington in place of an injured Rex Grossman. Do we know how often he threw the ball "up for grabs" compares to other prospects? When he broke down the QBs, he said Quinn gets all this press because of Weiss and being NFL ready but the film told a different story. by Will Allen (not verified) // Apr 17, 2007 - 4:45pm. by CA (not verified) // Apr 17, 2007 - 2:25pm. 29 starts is low for a college QB that will go in the first or second round; ideally, you have at least 30 or more. Russell seems like yet another workout wonder that is destined to fail despite really astounding gifts; honestly, QBs in the NFL can't make stupid mistakes like what he does and stay successful. by Bobman (not verified) // Apr 17, 2007 - 6:09pm. Like SD trading the #1 (Vick) pick to get LT and Brees in Rounds 1 and 2. 9. While I think that QBs that do not get a lot of playing time as underclassman are more likely to not have 'blue chip' talent. #65: True. He started just 12 games for Cleveland over three seasons, wasting much of that time in a tedious quarterback controversy with Derek Anderson. by Zac (not verified) // Apr 18, 2007 - 2:14am. The pick could have easily been David Pollack who busted his neck and might have ended his career before it even started.

He's an above average backup to come on a short term basis but asking him to lead a franchise a full season is beyond his skill set, especially dealing with multiple injuries throughout his career. It's ONE GAME people. Has played well in limited opportunities. Tim Couch's college numbers were inflated due to his offense (kind of like by Riceloft (not verified) // Apr 17, 2007 - 12:54pm. It's not just because he stayed another year. Or at all. Justin Harrell, DT, Tennessee It was very Daunte Fumblepeppereqsue.

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